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植耀輝:2023年大市看法分享
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股自踏入2023年後走勢強勁,「復常」概念以及通關在望,加上憧憬內地對互聯網監管有所放寬,令恆指於短短三個交易日已累升6.4%,並重上俗稱「牛熊分界線」250天線之上。相關因素無疑將繼續成為短期推升恆指之一大助力。正如近期經常強調,「憧憬永遠最美好」,所以筆者預期只要繼續有成交配合,大市短期仍有望續試高位;不過一旦春節假期人流及消費(澳門則看博彩數據)不及預期,屆時便有需要減一減磅矣! 早前跟大家分享了今年看好/看淡之股份/板塊,今日則集中分析大市表現。嚴格上,筆者認為今年投資市場有三方面值得留意,分別是環球經濟表現、央行取態以及疫情發展。先談環球經濟前景。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)早前發出警告,指今年全球周/3經濟體將陷入衰退,當中更點名中國、美國及歐盟經濟將出現放緩。以近期三地之最新經濟數據表現,衰退之陰霾確日漸增加,在避險意識以及擔憂企業盈利前景下,投資信心亦難免受到影響,相信在未來一至兩個季度,企業業績將成為投資市場一大關注點。 由此亦衍生第二大變數,就是息口去向。大部分央行現時仍忙於抗通脹及縮表,不過隨著通脹壓力紓緩,以及對衰退之關注,不少分析認為以聯儲局為首之各國央行亦會開始放慢加息步伐,甚至可能在下半年開始減息,其實市場亦不時借此有所炒作,只是筆者認為在通脹壓力仍在的情況下,央行亦未必有太多調整空間。聯儲局最新公布之上月議息會議紀錄便顯示,議會官員中並沒有人認為今年減息是合適,這除了反映央行與投資者之期望有所落差外,亦因經濟前景之不確定性,增添央行推行貨幣政策之難度。 最後亦不得不提疫情因素。環球正向復常之路邁進,惟內地最新疫情狀況仍較難掌握,對民生經濟以至供應鏈之影響亦較難評估;與此同時,未來如何解決內房債務問題以及會推出那些刺激經濟措施亦頗受關注。所以宜加倍留意今年3月初兩會後會提出及制訂哪些經濟目標及政策。 不過,隨著大家掌握更多經濟數據以及疫情影響逐步消失,投資者將更能看清未來發展方向,這亦是為何筆者認為下半年會較「易玩」之原因。 至於其餘影響大市之因素,還包括地緣政治及中美關係。俄烏戰事現時已演變成一場曠日持久戰,一旦戰事升級甚至波及其他國家,情況將變得更為複雜之餘對全球政經局勢亦會帶來深遠影響;至於中美關係無疑亦是一大挑戰,中概股尤其相當敏感,個別板塊如科技及半導體股亦會較易受到衝擊。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ***** 耀才研究部:關注美國就業數據 港股有望續試高位 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,美國ADP私人就業職位增幅遠高於預期,進一步加深投資者對聯儲局加息預期。受此影響,隔晚(5日)美股三大指數下跌,跌幅各超過1%;今晚(6日)美國勞工部將公布最新就業數據,預期會對今晚美股、匯市以至未來息口去向帶來更大啟示。 港股方面,昨日一度急升超過600點,其後升幅有所收窄,不過A股午後轉強亦對港股帶來支持,最終恆指上升259點或1.25%,收報21,052點,連升三日之餘累升達到1,270點或6.4%。值得留意的是成交金額達1,741億元,反映投資者入市意欲持續增加。由於累升不少,短期能否再上須視乎會否再有利好消息,另外A股表現亦有一定啟示。 技術走勢方面,恆指昨日裂口上升,但最終以陰燭收市,走勢上有所轉弱,不過只要能企穩250天線水平,向上趨勢依然未變,後市仍可看高一線。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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