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《業績前瞻》券商料匯控(00005.HK)中期稅前利潤跌逾五成 聚焦業務重組計劃
阿思達克 07-29 11:55
匯豐控股(00005.HK)近日股價持續向下,昨日股價曾低見34.1元創逾11年新低,集團將於下周一(8月3日)公布截至今年6月底止中期業績,受新冠疫情蔓延全球影響經濟活動,令信貸損失及其他信貸減值準備趨升,本網綜合3間券商預測,匯控今年上半年列帳基準除稅前利潤料介乎53.32億美元至59.3億美元,較去年同期124.07億美元,按年減少52.2%至57%,中位數為53.53億美元,按年減少56.9%。

綜合3間券商預測,匯控今年上半年經調整除稅前利潤預測介乎54.05億美元至62.43億美元,較去年同期125.16億美元,按年下跌50.1%至56.8%,中位數為55.66億美元,按年減少55.5%。市場關注集團信貸減值及趨勢、中美關係緊張令地緣地政風險增加、本港業務盈利前景面臨眾多不明朗因素,並留意管理層的業務重組計劃、潛在出售歐美業務及最新營運指引。

【信貸撥備飆 觀重組計劃】

高盛預測匯控今年上半年列帳基準除稅前利潤按年跌52%至59.3億美元,經調整除稅前利潤按年跌50%至62.43億美元,料今年中期預期信貸損失及其他信貸減值準備,由去年中期11.4億美元,大增3.8倍至54.67億美元,料中期純利46.06億美元按年跌近54%,每股中期盈利0.17美仙,不派中期息,估計淨利息收入147.72億美元按年倒退3.2%,料今年上半年營業支出159.46億美元,按年跌7%。

高盛估計匯控截至今年第二季風險加權資產8,760億美元,按年跌1%(按季升2%),估計至今年第二季普通股權一級比率14.4%,料至第二季有形股本回報率回落至4%(2019年第二為12%、今年第一季為4.2%)。而該行預期匯控第二季業績將顯示其盈利韌性,管理層或表示對下半年及2021年在信貸成本及盈利上的改善。該行預期匯控盈利明年將接近翻倍,在2022年再增長額外約兩成。該行亦預期匯控明年恢復派息及進行股份回購。

摩根大通預測匯控今年上半年列帳基準除稅前利潤按年跌57%至53.32億美元,估計中期經調整除稅前利潤預測54.05億美元按年下滑56.8%,料今年上半年信貸損失及其他信貸減值大增至61.55億美元,估計旗下香港業務盈利前景受壓,受到新冠疫情、中美關係緊張令地緣政治風險上升,並相信匯控面臨重組業務壓力將加劇。

券商│今年上半年列帳基準除稅前利潤預測│按年變幅

高盛│59.3億美元│-52.2%

摩根士丹利│53.53億美元│-56.9%

摩根大通│53.32億美元│-57%

按匯控2019年上半年列帳基準除稅前利潤124.07億美元計算。

--------------------

綜合3間券商預測,匯控今年上半年經調整(Adjusted)除稅前利潤預測介乎54.05億美元至62.43億美元,較去年同期125.16億美元,按年下跌50.1%至56.8%,中位數為55.66億美元,按年減少55.5%。

券商│今年上半年經調整除稅前利潤預測│按年變幅

高盛│62.43億美元│-50.1%

摩根士丹利│55.66億美元│-55.5%

摩根大通│54.05億美元│-56.8%

按匯控2019年上半年經調整除稅前利潤125.16億美元計算。

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