美團點評-W(03690.HK):結構逐步轉型,B端收入步入快速增長期,維持“買入”評級
機構:東吳證券
評級:買入
投資要點
事件:美團 1Q20 實現營業收入 167.54 億元(- yoy12.6%);經調整EBITDA達0.41 億元,經調整淨利潤-2.16億元,虧損率為-1.3%。
外賣——1Q20收入 94.9億元(- yoy11.4 %),GMV為715億元(- yoy5.4 %),訂單量為13.75億單(- yoy 17%);變現率達13.3%,經營虧損約 0.71 億元,虧損主要由於疫情影響下外賣訂單量下降,密度降低,致使單均騎手成本上升。GMV 降低幅度低於訂單降幅主要由於疫情期間,部分品牌商户加速進入外賣平台,致使整體客單價提升至 52 元(+yoy 14.5%,+qoq 16.3%) 。復工後中長尾商户供給恢復,環比客單價將略有回調,但由於高端商户的留存,整體客單價同比仍有望保持提升。
外賣業務量價齊升,逐步進入利潤釋放階段。1,GMV——用户消費恢復,疊加高端商户留存致使客單價增長,帶動GMV 增長;2, B端高毛利廣告收入提升,1Q20 佣金佔比由 19Q1 的 93%降至 90%,其他服務收入(營銷和其他)佔比提升至 10%。考慮外賣平台對於商户的核心作用為攤薄租金和人工等固定成本,當前憑條提點率已接近商户盈利上限,未來B 端收入(如高毛利的廣告營銷服務等)將成為外賣業務利潤提升的核心驅動之一;3,成本端——截止2020年5月,外賣訂單量已經恢復 90%,6月同比增速或將轉正,訂單量恢復後,騎手端規模效應顯現,單均配送成本將下降,提升外賣盈利能力。
到店酒旅——營銷服務表現出色,後疫情時期將持續貢獻利潤。1Q20收入 30.95億(- yoy 31%),佣金 11.97億(-yoy50.6%);廣告服務 18.87億元,同比下降 8%;其他服務 0.11 億元,經營利潤 6.8 億,經營利潤率為 22%,疫情過後,商户為彌補Q1損失,在廣告端需求或將增加,此前停滯的部分廣告業務收入也將恢復,今年廣告業務依舊將保持快速增長;雖然酒旅恢復尚需時間,但由於酒旅業務中廣告收入佔比較高,整體利潤率的回升將快於收入回升。
新業務——1Q20新業務收入41.68 億(+yoy 4.9%),經營虧損 13.64億,虧損率由 19Q1 的 47.2%收窄至 32.7%,主要由於單車折舊大幅減少,同時疫情期間網約車和快驢等業務量降低,相關成本減少,未來隨着出行和美團買菜,閃送等業務快速發展,新業務將保持提升趨勢。
盈利預測與投資評級:預計 2020-2022年美團收入達1150/1668/2178億元,增速為 18%/45%/31%;經調整EBITDA 約84/137/197 億元,考慮公司由於業務結構轉型趨勢良好,營銷等服務佔比提升帶動盈利能力增強,結合 SOTP 估值,公司2020 年估值約9407億港元,對應目標價為161 港元,維持“買入”評級。(1元=1.0851 港幣)
風險提示:騎手成本上升,行業政策風險,酒店發展不及預期,疫情反覆,新用户獲取不及預期。
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